Presentation on prediction markets

This is my polished-up presentation on prediction markets. The basic idea is that there must be a serious problem underlying the slow adoption of prediction markets globally.

Sure, they are popular and actively used in some companies, but they fail to gain real traction and dominate the forecasting market in the real world.

My idea is that there are two causes. The first one is the lack of users, which reduces the quality of the predictions and thus causes a cycle of slow user acquisition. The second one is more serious: the percentage of the population that understands stock market terms and fundamentals is miniscule. You need extreme ease of use to atract a diverse user base. Yet it is not as simple as simply hiding the market mechanics - at some point you begin to lose the prediction capabilities (e.g. when people do not know that they can change their bets). I.e. how much of the "market" can you hide before you start losing the "prediction"?

It's an interesting and a complex problem, but solving it may prove to be quite profitable as there are many ways to monetize prediction markets: 1. Sell the service (Saas) 2. Sell the insights 3. In-game-purchases (if you focus more on the game of prediction)